0xd8167e...336d71

Smart Score

Win Rate

81.5%

Total P&L

-$483

Trade Count

218

Sharpe Ratio

-0.44

Sortino Ratio

-0.98

Max Drawdown

1872.3%

ROI

-6.0%

Profit Factor

0.61

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

04.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	25	Mar 5
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY	59.0¢	8.475	Jan 29
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	BUY	67.0¢	14.925	Jan 29
Nothing Ever Happens: January	BUY	65.6¢	15.25	Jan 29
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY	78.0¢	6.41	Jan 6
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY	30.0¢	16.667	Jan 6
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $310–325 in 2025?	BUY	68.0¢	20.735	Dec 28
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	71.0¢	14.085	Nov 8
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?	BUY	12.0¢	41.667	Nov 4
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?	BUY	31.0¢	16.129	Nov 4
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?	SELL	96.1¢	20.83	Nov 4
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?	BUY	49.0¢	20.408	Nov 3
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	BUY	38.0¢	21.053	Nov 1
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	BUY	49.9¢	20.04	Nov 1
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	BUY	85.0¢	11.765	Nov 1
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?	BUY	75.4¢	15.026	Oct 19
Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?	SELL	97.2¢	10.52	Oct 19
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY	84.0¢	11.905	Oct 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10PM ET	BUY	81.0¢	5.988	Oct 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7PM ET	BUY	91.0¢	4.846	Oct 5

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing4.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.26

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.4%

Win Consistency23.8%

Profit Factor0.12

Drawdown Resilience0.10

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.10

Weekly Sharpe est.0.08

Trading Activity218 trades · 58 active days

P&L Calendar

$7,5861d profit57d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue