0xd9cfb6...bff16b

Smart Score

Win Rate

52.2%

Total P&L

+$25

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.63

Sortino Ratio

14.29

Max Drawdown

402.5%

ROI

1.9%

Profit Factor

1.49

Kelly Fraction

0.171

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

031.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	65.0¢	50	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	16.1¢	62.112	Mar 4
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	47.7¢	58.92	Mar 1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	59.4¢	58.923	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	99.6¢	20	Mar 1
Khamenei seen in public by March 2?	BUY	95.1¢	124.023	Feb 28
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	98.6¢	20	Feb 28
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	83.8¢	20	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	47.0¢	20	Feb 28
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	24.0¢	20	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	SELL	99.9¢	127.65	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	BUY	47.0¢	127.66	Feb 23
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	SELL	21.0¢	285.71	Feb 23
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	BUY	21.0¢	285.714	Feb 21
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	BUY	49.3¢	20	Jan 26
Will the US strike Cuba next?	BUY	0.7¢	714.286	Jan 26
US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	76	Jan 3
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?	BUY	7.6¢	30	Dec 2
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?	SELL	87.3¢	90	Dec 2
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?	BUY	83.6¢	18	Nov 20

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing31.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.75

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)28.9%

Win Consistency50.0%

Profit Factor0.83

Drawdown Resilience0.67

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.67

Weekly Sharpe est.0.51

Trading Activity55 trades · 21 active days

P&L Calendar

$2405d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue