0xdf580f...80cdcb

Smart Score

Win Rate

62.1%

Total P&L

+$8.7K

Trade Count

505

Sharpe Ratio

-0.26

Sortino Ratio

-0.24

Max Drawdown

65.9%

ROI

11.8%

Profit Factor

2.41

Kelly Fraction

0.363

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

041.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	75.0¢	1,333.333	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	85.3¢	2,344.375	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	75.0¢	666.667	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	63.0¢	3,174.603	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL	45.4¢	5,555	Mar 5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?	BUY	6.0¢	91.67	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	524.01	Mar 5
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	BUY	13.0¢	300	Mar 5
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	BUY	14.0¢	100	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	45.45	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	30.864	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	33.16	Mar 5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?	BUY	7.0¢	500	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	29.41	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	75.667	Mar 5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	10.9	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	500	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY	19.0¢	7.14	Mar 4
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	49.0¢	76.23	Mar 4
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY	49.0¢	10	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing41.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.28

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)37.7%

Win Consistency60.9%

Profit Factor1.08

Drawdown Resilience0.87

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.87

Weekly Sharpe est.0.66

Trading Activity497 trades · 13 active days

P&L Calendar

$43,2541d profit12d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue