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0xdff2cf...002439

0xdff2cf...002439
Smart Score
52
Win Rate
53.1%
Total P&L
+$40
Trade Count
82
Sharpe Ratio
1.45
Sortino Ratio
6.61
Max Drawdown
130.0%
ROI
10.5%
Profit Factor
9.77
Kelly Fraction
0.477
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
051.6/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY64.0¢2.813Mar 5
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL81.0¢1.31Mar 5
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?BUY20.3¢4.926Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?BUY56.0¢20Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?BUY57.0¢1.754Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?SELL47.0¢5Mar 3
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL76.0¢2.7Mar 2
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?BUY33.0¢5Mar 2
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?SELL65.0¢2.63Mar 2
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?SELL66.0¢5Feb 28
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by March 31, 2026?SELL99.7¢5Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?SELL53.4¢2.42Feb 28
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY39.7¢4.584Feb 28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL82.0¢1Feb 28
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?BUY63.0¢5Feb 28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY74.0¢2.703Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?BUY82.6¢2.421Feb 28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?SELL0.4¢80.11Feb 28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL8.9¢16.66Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?SELL99.0¢10Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%16%< 10%12%10–20%12%20–30%14%30–50%20%50–70%12%70–80%10%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing51.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.84
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)47.0%
Win Consistency60.6%
Profit Factor1.34
Drawdown Resilience1.08
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.08
Weekly Sharpe est.0.83
Trading Activity82 trades · 22 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$777d profit14d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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