0xe0c3ae...723b54

Smart Score

Win Rate

46.7%

Total P&L

+$2

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

1.15

Sortino Ratio

3.67

Max Drawdown

32.3%

ROI

0.6%

Profit Factor

1.18

Kelly Fraction

0.070

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

046.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	72.0¢	41.667	Mar 5
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY	64.0¢	15.625	Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	2.4¢	208.333	Mar 4
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	2.3¢	434.783	Mar 4
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	93.2¢	31.76	Mar 3
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?	BUY	16.0¢	15.625	Mar 3
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	14.0¢	14.286	Mar 3
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	BUY	2.9¢	68.467	Mar 2
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	78.7¢	31.766	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?	SELL	98.6¢	43.95	Mar 2
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	BUY	29.7¢	10.101	Mar 2
SBF released from custody in 2026?	BUY	14.0¢	7.143	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?	BUY	91.0¢	43.956	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	BUY	19.0¢	105.263	Mar 2
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?	BUY	57.3¢	34.914	Mar 2
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	SELL	54.9¢	40.81	Mar 1
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	BUY	49.0¢	40.816	Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	17.6¢	33.33	Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	15.0¢	33.333	Mar 1
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?	BUY	98.3¢	1.017	Feb 28

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing46.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.57

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)42.6%

Win Consistency50.0%

Profit Factor1.22

Drawdown Resilience0.98

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.98

Weekly Sharpe est.0.75

Trading Activity20 trades · 6 active days

P&L Calendar

$952d profit4d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue