0xe1c816...0d0743

Smart Score

Win Rate

57.1%

Total P&L

-$323

Trade Count

421

Sharpe Ratio

-0.27

Sortino Ratio

-0.96

Max Drawdown

7868.3%

ROI

-12.6%

Profit Factor

0.62

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

04.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	SELL	9.0¢	9.09	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	81.0¢	1.4	Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 4?	BUY	93.0¢	2.172	Mar 4
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	3.0¢	101	Mar 3
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	2.3¢	437.826	Mar 3
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY	19.0¢	63.158	Mar 3
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	BUY	7.7¢	493.727	Mar 3
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	4.8¢	630.492	Mar 3
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	1.9¢	730.162	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	75.1¢	149.79	Mar 3
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?	BUY	5.8¢	39.655	Mar 3
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	15.3¢	13.072	Mar 2
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	5.0¢	107.157	Mar 1
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	5.8¢	42.636	Mar 1
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	2.9¢	34.109	Mar 1
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	0.3¢	666.667	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	0.1¢	1,484.82	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	2.8¢	798.571	Feb 28
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL	13.3¢	163.72	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	2.6¢	115.385	Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing4.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.25

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.2%

Win Consistency17.5%

Profit Factor0.12

Drawdown Resilience0.10

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.10

Weekly Sharpe est.0.07

Trading Activity414 trades · 158 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,43710d profit147d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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