0xe24cd0...406071

Smart Score

Win Rate

26.3%

Total P&L

-$0

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-3.52

Sortino Ratio

-7.13

Max Drawdown

0.0%

ROI

-0.4%

Profit Factor

0.99

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

024.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5?	BUY	97.4¢	1.027	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	SELL	9.1¢	10.2	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	SELL	0.3¢	157.56	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	SELL	0.1¢	333.33	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	SELL	0.1¢	500	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	SELL	0.8¢	90.9	Mar 5
Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?	BUY	1.2¢	84.304	Mar 4
Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?	BUY	0.8¢	121.444	Mar 4
Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony?	BUY	1.1¢	88.013	Mar 4
Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?	BUY	0.8¢	121.444	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	BUY	0.2¢	500	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	BUY	0.3¢	333.333	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	BUY	0.6¢	157.563	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	BUY	1.1¢	90.909	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY	9.8¢	10.204	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?	BUY	33.0¢	3.03	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	56.9¢	1.757	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY	76.0¢	1.316	Mar 4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3?	BUY	10.0¢	8.88	Mar 3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3?	BUY	10.0¢	1.111	Mar 3

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing24.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.33

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)22.0%

Win Consistency10.5%

Profit Factor0.63

Drawdown Resilience0.51

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.51

Weekly Sharpe est.0.39

Trading Activity26 trades · 4 active days

P&L Calendar

$340d profit4d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue