0xe93735...06d46a

Smart Score

Win Rate

36.9%

Total P&L

+$11.9K

Trade Count

1,591

Sharpe Ratio

0.66

Sortino Ratio

57.68

Max Drawdown

1144.0%

ROI

41.3%

Profit Factor

10.88

Kelly Fraction

0.335

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

044.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	5.0¢	393	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	6.1¢	102.51	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	7.9¢	104.61	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	54.453	Mar 5
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?	BUY	4.0¢	200	Mar 5
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	20	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	27.136	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.0¢	883.84	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.0¢	1.16	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.0¢	15	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	23.618	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	56.281	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	42.211	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	20.1	Mar 4
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	15.811	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	50.1¢	20	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.4¢	423.06	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	1.4¢	459.3	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	2.6¢	2,000	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing44.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.43

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)40.1%

Win Consistency56.9%

Profit Factor1.15

Drawdown Resilience0.93

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.93

Weekly Sharpe est.0.71

Trading Activity1,591 trades · 35 active days

P&L Calendar

+$2,79418d profit17d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue