0xf0010b...8876c5

Smart Score

Win Rate

15.8%

Total P&L

-$982

Trade Count

288

Sharpe Ratio

0.48

Sortino Ratio

12.96

Max Drawdown

91.0%

ROI

-24.5%

Profit Factor

0.26

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

04.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	0.3¢	1,333.333	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	0.2¢	1,646.54	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	6.0¢	1,165.433	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	61.2¢	481.108	Feb 28
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 15?	BUY	61.1¢	16.355	Jan 14
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 15?	SELL	0.3¢	125	Jan 14
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 15?	BUY	0.8¢	125	Jan 14
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 15?	BUY	0.9¢	115.396	Jan 14
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	BUY	0.5¢	191.667	Dec 24
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on December 12?	SELL	1.0¢	20	Dec 12
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on December 12?	BUY	5.0¢	20	Dec 12
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 12?	BUY	36.2¢	5.526	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 12?	BUY	36.0¢	5.556	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on December 11?	BUY	0.3¢	333.333	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on December 12?	BUY	0.4¢	240.16	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on December 12?	BUY	0.4¢	451.16	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 12?	BUY	15.0¢	15	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on December 12?	BUY	8.0¢	25	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on December 12?	BUY	0.5¢	219	Dec 11
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 11?	SELL	99.5¢	6.93	Dec 11

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing4.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.26

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.3%

Win Consistency46.9%

Profit Factor0.12

Drawdown Resilience0.10

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.10

Weekly Sharpe est.0.08

Trading Activity288 trades · 17 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,1174d profit13d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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