0xf2f34b...f6c7e9

Smart Score

Win Rate

30.8%

Total P&L

-$1.8K

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.73

Sortino Ratio

19.58

Max Drawdown

136.1%

ROI

-12.1%

Profit Factor

0.53

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

021.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	38.2¢	1,578.13	Feb 28
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	1,481.481	Feb 28
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	62	Feb 28
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	SELL	81.0¢	1,633.94	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	9,951.25	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	15	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	3.04	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	5	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	177.15	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	232.57	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	44.72	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	7,444.24	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	300	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	598.68	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	1,102.57	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	22.211	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?	BUY	0.5¢	103.558	Feb 21
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	1.8¢	2,837.388	Feb 21
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	3.2¢	1,578.133	Feb 21
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	BUY	3.0¢	1,666.667	Feb 21

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing21.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.19

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)19.7%

Win Consistency38.5%

Profit Factor0.56

Drawdown Resilience0.45

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.45

Weekly Sharpe est.0.35

Trading Activity42 trades · 9 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,8012d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue