0xf3d57a...c12413

Smart Score

Win Rate

23.1%

Total P&L

-$304

Trade Count

359

Sharpe Ratio

0.18

Sortino Ratio

28.05

Max Drawdown

680.3%

ROI

-18.7%

Profit Factor

0.27

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

02.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	76.0¢	6.579	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	39.0¢	12.821	Mar 3
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	43.0¢	6.977	Mar 1
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	76.0¢	6.579	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	79.0¢	22.22	Feb 28
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	66.9¢	7.47	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY	45.0¢	22.222	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	SELL	69.0¢	30.43	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	BUY	44.0¢	75.795	Feb 20
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	BUY	44.0¢	11.364	Jan 29
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY	21.0¢	4.762	Jan 23
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY	21.0¢	19.048	Jan 23
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	47.0¢	10.638	Jan 23
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	BUY	77.0¢	12.987	Jan 22
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	SELL	0.9¢	51.23	Jan 20
Nothing Ever Happens: January	SELL	54.0¢	5	Jan 15
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	BUY	16.0¢	25	Jan 14
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	SELL	5.0¢	50	Jan 13
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY	47.0¢	15	Jan 12
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	BUY	9.0¢	50	Jan 12

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing2.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.12

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)2.0%

Win Consistency35.0%

Profit Factor0.06

Drawdown Resilience0.05

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.05

Weekly Sharpe est.0.04

Trading Activity359 trades · 82 active days

P&L Calendar

$48526d profit55d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue