0xf56687...8f1386

Smart Score

Win Rate

54.7%

Total P&L

+$42.2K

Trade Count

866

Sharpe Ratio

0.13

Sortino Ratio

0.27

Max Drawdown

65.2%

ROI

11.0%

Profit Factor

4.55

Kelly Fraction

0.427

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

052/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL	2.1¢	50,000	Feb 28
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	4.8¢	50,000	Feb 17
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL	26.0¢	5,000	Feb 14
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	BUY	65.0¢	2,000	Feb 9
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	1.1¢	90,000	Feb 5
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	1.0¢	8,554	Feb 3
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	0.8¢	41,446	Feb 2
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	SELL	15.3¢	1,000	Feb 2
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY	20.2¢	1,000	Feb 2
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	0.8¢	30,000	Jan 19
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	0.7¢	50,000	Jan 18
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	0.8¢	50,000	Jan 8
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	30	Dec 23
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	67.0¢	1,000	Nov 30
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	67.4¢	5,000	Nov 26
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	5.0¢	12,000	Nov 23
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	65.7¢	6,000	Nov 23
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	59.0¢	153.07	Nov 21
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	59.0¢	46.93	Nov 21
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?	BUY	1.3¢	100	Nov 17

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing52

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.86

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)47.3%

Win Consistency50.9%

Profit Factor1.35

Drawdown Resilience1.09

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.09

Weekly Sharpe est.0.83

Trading Activity286 trades · 60 active days

P&L Calendar

$40,1308d profit52d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue