0xf85564...3612d4

Smart Score

Win Rate

40.7%

Total P&L

-$4

Trade Count

121

Sharpe Ratio

-0.30

Sortino Ratio

-0.87

Max Drawdown

542.3%

ROI

-2.9%

Profit Factor

0.87

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

04.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	56.0¢	1.786	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	81.0¢	2.23	Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?	BUY	46.0¢	2.174	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	72.0¢	0.02	Mar 4
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?	SELL	29.0¢	1.96	Mar 2
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	SELL	9.0¢	2.94	Mar 2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	61.0¢	1.639	Mar 2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	BUY	66.0¢	1.515	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	43.0¢	3.67	Mar 2
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	25.0¢	4	Mar 1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	52.0¢	1.923	Mar 1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	91.0¢	2.32	Feb 28
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	67.0¢	1.493	Feb 28
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?	BUY	51.0¢	1.961	Feb 28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	43.0¢	2.326	Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?	SELL	99.9¢	2.56	Feb 28
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?	BUY	78.0¢	2.564	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	SELL	99.8¢	1.96	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	BUY	51.0¢	1.961	Feb 19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	SELL	83.0¢	1.63	Feb 19

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing4.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.24

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)4.0%

Win Consistency39.5%

Profit Factor0.11

Drawdown Resilience0.09

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.09

Weekly Sharpe est.0.07

Trading Activity121 trades · 50 active days

P&L Calendar

$4718d profit32d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue