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0xf85af3...272d27

0xf85af3...272d27
Smart Score
31
Win Rate
60.3%
Total P&L
+$30
Trade Count
300
Sharpe Ratio
1.15
Sortino Ratio
6.37
Max Drawdown
108.2%
ROI
2.1%
Profit Factor
1.62
Kelly Fraction
0.232
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
030.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL49.0¢28.4Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY56.0¢8.43Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY57.0¢21.053Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL50.0¢1.83Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL51.1¢26.57Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?SELL28.3¢7.88Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?BUY74.0¢9.46Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL37.0¢18.93Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?BUY9.0¢13.13Mar 4
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?SELL74.0¢1.56Mar 4
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?BUY76.0¢2.37Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL94.3¢0.55Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL94.1¢0.28Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL94.4¢0.33Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL77.3¢0.11Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL77.4¢0.84Mar 4
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?BUY30.0¢14.4Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL5.9¢71.42Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?BUY6.7¢74.776Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?SELL94.1¢0.02Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%4%< 10%4%10–20%20–30%8%30–50%16%50–70%9%70–80%14%80–90%43%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing30.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.69
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)28.0%
Win Consistency63.9%
Profit Factor0.80
Drawdown Resilience0.65
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.65
Weekly Sharpe est.0.49
Trading Activity300 trades · 15 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3186d profit9d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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