0xf91cea...98853a

Smart Score

Win Rate

80.7%

Total P&L

+$118

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.20

Sortino Ratio

-0.18

Max Drawdown

12860.1%

ROI

1.6%

Profit Factor

2.41

Kelly Fraction

0.472

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	197.437	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 3?	BUY	99.0¢	79.949	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	17.685	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	270.231	Feb 25
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	BUY	99.7¢	26.549	Feb 21
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	BUY	99.3¢	238.328	Feb 20
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	21.631	Feb 15
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	225.565	Feb 11
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?	BUY	99.9¢	326.246	Jan 29
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.2¢	212.792	Jan 24
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.9¢	23.013	Jan 21
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.7¢	96.61	Jan 18
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	4.4¢	96.591	Jan 17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	BUY	98.4¢	37.175	Dec 27
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?	BUY	99.0¢	45.081	Dec 23
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	BUY	99.4¢	317.978	Dec 22
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	99.8¢	1.393	Dec 10
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	99.6¢	46.677	Dec 4
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	SELL	15.1¢	75.53	Dec 2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	35.0¢	316.743	Nov 20

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.38

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)22.8%

Win Consistency62.1%

Profit Factor0.65

Drawdown Resilience0.53

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.53

Weekly Sharpe est.0.40

Trading Activity66 trades · 58 active days

P&L Calendar

$3,10512d profit46d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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