0xf9af9d...7facb1

Smart Score

Win Rate

46.5%

Total P&L

+$35

Trade Count

450

Sharpe Ratio

0.56

Sortino Ratio

56.03

Max Drawdown

129.1%

ROI

1.6%

Profit Factor

1.19

Kelly Fraction

0.075

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

027.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	38.0¢	3.83	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	26.0¢	3.846	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	29.0¢	3.37	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	59.0¢	3.39	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	56.0¢	3.21	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	16.2¢	4.99	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	20.0¢	5	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	31.0¢	3.226	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL	37.0¢	5.4	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	37.0¢	5.405	Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	BUY	18.0¢	5.556	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	34.0¢	5.25	Mar 4
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	SELL	17.0¢	4	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?	SELL	0.6¢	17.22	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	BUY	1.5¢	66.667	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	38.0¢	5.263	Mar 4
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?	BUY	62.0¢	8.065	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	61.7¢	8.81	Mar 4
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	BUY	84.0¢	11.905	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	29.0¢	6.24	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing27.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.50

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.8%

Win Consistency43.5%

Profit Factor0.71

Drawdown Resilience0.57

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.57

Weekly Sharpe est.0.44

Trading Activity450 trades · 7 active days

P&L Calendar

$5412d profit5d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue