0xfece46...a724c6

Smart Score

Win Rate

50.0%

Total P&L

+$86

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.47

Sortino Ratio

7.03

Max Drawdown

115.8%

ROI

27.4%

Profit Factor

3.08

Kelly Fraction

0.337

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

038.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	SELL	47.8¢	7.89	Mar 5
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?	BUY	80.0¢	15	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	BUY	18.2¢	38.462	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY	22.0¢	227.273	Mar 3
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	BUY	4.5¢	155.432	Mar 3
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	BUY	1.5¢	200	Mar 3
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?	SELL	96.1¢	5.35	Mar 3
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY	41.5¢	12.048	Mar 3
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	BUY	4.1¢	48.78	Mar 3
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	BUY	26.0¢	38.462	Mar 3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	38.0¢	39.474	Mar 3
Anthropic CEO arrested?	BUY	4.9¢	40.816	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.9¢	20.108	Mar 3
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?	BUY	56.0¢	5.357	Mar 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	37.0¢	18.919	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	99.8¢	121.21	Mar 2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	BUY	38.0¢	7.895	Mar 2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	3.3¢	121.212	Feb 17
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?	SELL	1.8¢	31.25	Jul 28
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?	BUY	29.0¢	5.172	Jul 25

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing38.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.10

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.8%

Win Consistency41.7%

Profit Factor0.99

Drawdown Resilience0.80

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.80

Weekly Sharpe est.0.61

Trading Activity30 trades · 10 active days

P&L Calendar

$203d profit7d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue