0xumbra

0x9c1e67...dab7d3

Smart Score

Win Rate

79.3%

Total P&L

+$495

Trade Count

219

Sharpe Ratio

-0.56

Sortino Ratio

-0.52

Max Drawdown

18151.0%

ROI

3.1%

Profit Factor

2.14

Kelly Fraction

0.422

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

019.1/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	SELL	99.4¢	100	Mar 5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	78.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	SELL	77.8¢	4.42	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	SELL	77.8¢	25.58	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	BUY	51.4¢	26.52	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?	BUY	51.4¢	3.48	Mar 3
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	77.0¢	0.81	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	77.0¢	20	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	77.0¢	20	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	77.0¢	2	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	77.0¢	75	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	13.0¢	20.4	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	52.0¢	80	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	49.0¢	31.25	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	49.0¢	6.569	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	49.0¢	20.408	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	1.7¢	114	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	SELL	20.0¢	6	Mar 1
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	BUY	11.0¢	120	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL	96.7¢	205.97	Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing19.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.05

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)17.4%

Win Consistency42.5%

Profit Factor0.50

Drawdown Resilience0.40

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.40

Weekly Sharpe est.0.31

Trading Activity219 trades · 59 active days

P&L Calendar

$3,35921d profit38d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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