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455112

0x139c3f...a1b47d
Smart Score
1
Win Rate
41.3%
Total P&L
-$69
Trade Count
1,391
Sharpe Ratio
-0.71
Sortino Ratio
-0.87
Max Drawdown
138935.5%
ROI
-1.2%
Profit Factor
0.72
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
00.6/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will France strike Iran by March 31?SELL92.3¢5Mar 4
Will France strike Iran by March 31?BUY92.9¢5Mar 4
Will France strike Iran by March 31?SELL92.8¢5Mar 4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?SELL39.0¢8Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY79.0¢5Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?SELL78.0¢5Mar 4
Trump out as President before 2027?SELL82.0¢5Mar 4
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL71.0¢5Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?SELL17.0¢5.88Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?BUY17.0¢5.88Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?SELL23.0¢5Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL61.0¢5Mar 4
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?SELL58.0¢5Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?SELL16.0¢6.66Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY60.0¢5Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY64.0¢0.07Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?BUY77.0¢5Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL48.0¢5Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?SELL66.0¢5Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?BUY15.0¢6.66Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%9%< 10%4%10–20%7%20–30%14%30–50%30%50–70%11%70–80%13%80–90%12%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing0.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.03
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)0.5%
Win Consistency48.8%
Profit Factor0.02
Drawdown Resilience0.01
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.01
Weekly Sharpe est.0.01
Trading Activity1,391 trades · 26 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3438d profit18d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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