aLaT

0x429aff...e68070
Smart Score
15
Win Rate
38.9%
Total P&L
-$1.0K
Trade Count
681
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Sortino Ratio
0.44
Max Drawdown
916.0%
ROI
-1.2%
Profit Factor
0.92
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
Smart Score
014.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?BUY23.2¢264.833Jan 27
US government shutdown Saturday?SELL24.0¢256.47Jan 27
US government shutdown Saturday?BUY21.0¢256.476Jan 26
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?SELL1.0¢2,000Jan 26
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?SELL0.3¢6,912.04Jan 26
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY0.2¢2,000Jan 22
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY0.3¢929.36Jan 21
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY0.2¢2,100Jan 20
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?SELL0.4¢1,034Jan 20
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?BUY1.0¢1,034Jan 20
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?SELL0.7¢1,500Jan 20
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY1.8¢1,901.389Jan 17
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?SELL5.1¢462.68Jan 17
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY1.8¢2,981.299Jan 17
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY2.3¢1,097.498Jan 17
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?BUY0.7¢4,437.809Jan 17
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?BUY10.8¢462.685Jan 6
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?BUY6.8¢475.235Jun 14
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?BUY1.4¢446Jun 14
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?SELL6.3¢100Jun 13
Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%35%< 10%25%10–20%9%20–30%11%30–50%7%50–70%4%70–80%80–90%7%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing14.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.81
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)13.5%
Win Consistency46.0%
Profit Factor0.38
Drawdown Resilience0.31
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.31
Weekly Sharpe est.0.24
Trading Activity23 trades · 9 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3730d profit9d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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