Alfayonaa

0x312e00...b8c604

Smart Score

Win Rate

34.5%

Total P&L

-$5

Trade Count

146

Sharpe Ratio

1.12

Sortino Ratio

6.92

Max Drawdown

1511.2%

ROI

-0.7%

Profit Factor

0.82

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

026.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	BUY	18.0¢	20	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	BUY	18.0¢	40	Mar 5
GPT-5.4 released by March 9?	BUY	18.0¢	40	Mar 5
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL	48.0¢	58.49	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	30.0¢	10	Mar 5
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL	13.0¢	10	Mar 4
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	32.0¢	20	Mar 4
Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY	97.5¢	10	Mar 4
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY	12.0¢	10	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	35.0¢	3.56	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	35.0¢	5	Mar 4
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY	32.0¢	10	Mar 3
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	40.0¢	10	Mar 3
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	BUY	15.0¢	20	Mar 3
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	44.0¢	15	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	43.0¢	20	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	49.0¢	10	Mar 2
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BUY	3.7¢	30	Mar 2
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL	48.0¢	6.51	Mar 2
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?	SELL	60.0¢	16	Mar 2

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing26.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.44

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.8%

Win Consistency56.3%

Profit Factor0.68

Drawdown Resilience0.55

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.55

Weekly Sharpe est.0.42

Trading Activity146 trades · 17 active days

P&L Calendar

$957d profit10d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue