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0x3c322f...2db464

Smart Score

Win Rate

13.2%

Total P&L

-$263

Trade Count

3,074

Sharpe Ratio

0.47

Sortino Ratio

42.03

Max Drawdown

8736.0%

ROI

-0.7%

Profit Factor

0.96

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

019.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	SELL	3.5¢	1,128.43	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.5¢	174.69	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	27.7¢	18.036	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	26.0¢	115.385	Mar 5
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY	34.0¢	29.412	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.6¢	205.479	Mar 5
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	3.5¢	2,866.37	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.6¢	102.74	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	38.0¢	26.316	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.6¢	684.932	Mar 5
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY	34.0¢	14.706	Mar 5
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY	34.0¢	29.412	Mar 5
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	3.5¢	4,000	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	16.2¢	47.037	Mar 4
Iran Nuke before 2027?	BUY	12.0¢	83.333	Mar 4
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	BUY	13.0¢	38.462	Mar 4
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	1.7¢	301.881	Mar 4
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	BUY	13.0¢	76.923	Mar 4
Iran Nuke before 2027?	BUY	12.0¢	41.667	Mar 4
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?	BUY	2.6¢	190.603	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing19.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.07

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)17.8%

Win Consistency40.8%

Profit Factor0.51

Drawdown Resilience0.41

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.41

Weekly Sharpe est.0.31

Trading Activity3,074 trades · 19 active days

P&L Calendar

$4,8825d profit14d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue