big-short

0x63c652...5743a5

Smart Score

Win Rate

76.6%

Total P&L

+$39.6K

Trade Count

959

Sharpe Ratio

0.32

Sortino Ratio

0.39

Max Drawdown

73.3%

ROI

26.2%

Profit Factor

3.03

Kelly Fraction

0.513

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

050.6/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	SELL	89.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	SELL	89.0¢	94	Mar 4
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	SELL	64.0¢	220	Mar 3
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	BUY	33.0¢	200	Mar 1
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	BUY	25.0¢	120.77	Mar 1
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	BUY	25.0¢	10	Mar 1
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	BUY	25.0¢	3.44	Feb 28
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	SELL	17.0¢	299.99	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	13.15	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	2.941	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	2.941	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	67	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	39.118	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	BUY	25.0¢	60.99	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	BUY	22.0¢	22.59	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	BUY	22.0¢	13.34	Feb 28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	BUY	66.0¢	41.176	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	SELL	81.0¢	1,559.85	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	SELL	81.0¢	597.14	Feb 28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY	72.0¢	157	Feb 28

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing50.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.78

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)46.1%

Win Consistency65.0%

Profit Factor1.32

Drawdown Resilience1.06

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.06

Weekly Sharpe est.0.81

Trading Activity959 trades · 31 active days

P&L Calendar

$103,3186d profit25d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue