bugcat

0x349134...2dbb86

Smart Score

Win Rate

27.3%

Total P&L

+$160

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

2.11

Sortino Ratio

97.23

Max Drawdown

26.1%

ROI

6.2%

Profit Factor

3.90

Kelly Fraction

0.203

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

067.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	2.5¢	5,473	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.1¢	560.7	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.3¢	473.98	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.8¢	30	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.7¢	50	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.3¢	300	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	3.2¢	200	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	2.9¢	54.99	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.7¢	17.76	Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.7¢	28.72	Mar 5
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	SELL	50.0¢	517.521	Mar 4
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	BUY	0.9¢	1,104.268	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.1¢	106.82	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.1¢	74.275	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.2¢	572.75	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.1¢	30	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.4¢	1,200	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY	4.3¢	300	Mar 4
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY	9.0¢	110	Mar 4
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY	25.0¢	107	Mar 4

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active67.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.70

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)61.2%

Win Consistency45.5%

Profit Factor1.75

Drawdown Resilience1.41

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.41

Weekly Sharpe est.1.08

Trading Activity54 trades · 9 active days

P&L Calendar

$4863d profit6d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue