bundleofsticks

0x4f9b3c...ba2899

Smart Score

Win Rate

44.7%

Total P&L

+$10

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-2.36

Sortino Ratio

-2.39

Max Drawdown

332.3%

ROI

2.4%

Profit Factor

1.33

Kelly Fraction

0.112

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

03.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?	BUY	80.0¢	12.5	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	SELL	27.0¢	13.51	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	74.0¢	13.514	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	58.0¢	7.431	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	37.0¢	13.514	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	BUY	46.0¢	10.87	Mar 5
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	BUY	9.4¢	10.638	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	83.0¢	17.24	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?	BUY	59.0¢	3.102	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?	BUY	55.5¢	9.003	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?	BUY	63.0¢	1.587	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?	BUY	55.0¢	1.818	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	BUY	51.0¢	1.961	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	SELL	99.5¢	10.88	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	29.0¢	29.517	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	BUY	69.0¢	14.493	Mar 4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	BUY	96.3¢	10.384	Mar 3
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	25.4¢	39.37	Mar 3
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	52.0¢	19.231	Mar 3
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY	83.0¢	12.048	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing3.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.19

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)3.2%

Win Consistency47.9%

Profit Factor0.09

Drawdown Resilience0.07

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.07

Weekly Sharpe est.0.06

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue