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Capillatus

0x85bd6a...c87f75
Smart Score
38
Win Rate
64.3%
Total P&L
+$4.2K
Trade Count
959
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Sortino Ratio
10.62
Max Drawdown
653.2%
ROI
6.8%
Profit Factor
2.30
Kelly Fraction
0.363
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
038.4/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?BUY43.0¢82.977Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 27?SELL52.1¢68.58Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 27?BUY84.4¢68.588Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?SELL93.0¢36.64Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?SELL93.0¢25.625Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?BUY63.3¢62.272Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 27?SELL99.9¢39.47Feb 27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 27?BUY92.2¢39.479Feb 26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?SELL58.5¢62.27Feb 25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?BUY81.7¢62.271Feb 25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?SELL0.7¢6,808.25Feb 25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?BUY1.1¢3,829.091Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?SELL3.5¢1,202.6Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?BUY64.3¢405.44Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?BUY38.6¢797.16Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?SELL99.8¢308.63Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 22?BUY76.3¢308.632Feb 21
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?SELL2.0¢555.9Feb 20
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?BUY80.9¢555.909Feb 20
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?BUY80.0¢62.5Feb 20

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%4%< 10%10–20%20–30%11%30–50%19%50–70%11%70–80%27%80–90%22%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing38.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.11
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)34.9%
Win Consistency47.3%
Profit Factor1.00
Drawdown Resilience0.81
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.81
Weekly Sharpe est.0.61
Trading Activity959 trades · 54 active days
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P&L Calendar
$3,78818d profit35d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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