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chivoexpiatorio

0x73bb53...c69473
Smart Score
16
Win Rate
38.6%
Total P&L
+$15.2K
Trade Count
302
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Sortino Ratio
-0.87
Max Drawdown
1124.9%
ROI
5.8%
Profit Factor
1.69
Kelly Fraction
0.157
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
015.6/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL99.8¢8,999.99Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY95.9¢860Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY95.9¢26.33Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY95.9¢634.146Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY95.9¢3,479.52Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY96.2¢4,000Feb 28
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?BUY77.9¢15,000Feb 18
Epstein client list released by June 30?BUY24.9¢4,010.311Feb 8
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?BUY93.3¢5,357.659Feb 8
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL1.6¢26,000Feb 8
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?SELL40.3¢500Feb 8
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?SELL30.2¢800Feb 8
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?BUY36.3¢430Feb 2
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?BUY0.6¢40,000Feb 2
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?BUY20.0¢500Jan 23
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?BUY0.6¢4,283.652Jan 23
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?SELL99.1¢15,885.73Jan 23
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY16.0¢1,500Jan 18
Tim Walz in jail by March 31?BUY1.7¢147Jan 18
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?BUY52.7¢1,038Jan 18

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%21%< 10%10%10–20%9%20–30%13%30–50%10%50–70%9%70–80%16%80–90%12%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing15.6

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.86
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)14.2%
Win Consistency32.5%
Profit Factor0.41
Drawdown Resilience0.33
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.33
Weekly Sharpe est.0.25
Trading Activity234 trades · 61 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$11,24818d profit43d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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