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conswang

0x397e63...5ace08@tietuow
Smart Score
25
Win Rate
36.4%
Total P&L
+$126
Trade Count
48
Sharpe Ratio
0.50
Sortino Ratio
2.82
Max Drawdown
685.4%
ROI
23.9%
Profit Factor
2.36
Kelly Fraction
0.209
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
025.1/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?BUY18.0¢5.556Mar 4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?BUY1.2¢83.333Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?BUY16.4¢6.098Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?SELL69.0¢7.69Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?SELL61.0¢16.66Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY13.0¢7.692Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?BUY6.0¢16.667Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?BUY5.7¢17.544Mar 4
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?BUY5.0¢31.6Mar 4
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETBUY14.0¢10Jan 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETSELL2.0¢9.96Jan 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETBUY15.0¢10Jan 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETSELL40.0¢9.91Jan 17
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETBUY24.0¢10Jan 17
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?BUY39.0¢12.821Dec 28
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?BUY13.0¢7.692Dec 28
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?SELL33.0¢50Nov 20
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?BUY25.0¢50Nov 20
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?SELL52.0¢50Nov 13
Will the government shutdown end November 12?SELL99.9¢80Nov 13

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%20%< 10%23%10–20%26%20–30%23%30–50%6%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing25.1

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.38
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)22.8%
Win Consistency33.3%
Profit Factor0.65
Drawdown Resilience0.53
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.53
Weekly Sharpe est.0.40
Trading Activity48 trades · 16 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
+$147d profit9d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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