cosmos123

0x016761...e78ebf

Smart Score

Win Rate

50.0%

Total P&L

+$2

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.92

Sortino Ratio

2.39

Max Drawdown

233.3%

ROI

0.7%

Profit Factor

1.05

Kelly Fraction

0.025

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

018.3/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?	BUY	20.1¢	126.659	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	SELL	56.0¢	10.8	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	SELL	16.4¢	11.45	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	61.0¢	16.393	Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	35.0¢	14.286	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	SELL	2.4¢	318.18	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	28.0¢	52.63	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	2.2¢	318.182	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	SELL	28.0¢	25.2	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	24.0¢	30	Mar 3
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	SELL	19.0¢	15.62	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	BUY	52.4¢	11.45	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	30.0¢	20	Mar 3
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	BUY	24.0¢	15.625	Mar 2
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	BUY	19.4¢	36	Mar 1
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	19.0¢	52.632	Mar 1
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	BUY	12.0¢	50	Mar 1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?	SELL	99.8¢	10.9	Mar 1
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	SELL	12.2¢	23.8	Mar 1
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?	BUY	55.1¢	10.893	Feb 28

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing18.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.01

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)16.7%

Win Consistency46.7%

Profit Factor0.48

Drawdown Resilience0.38

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.38

Weekly Sharpe est.0.29

Trading Activity51 trades · 23 active days

P&L Calendar

$557d profit15d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue