erikasmith

0x7f1ded...6b5441

Smart Score

Win Rate

88.7%

Total P&L

+$59

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.10

Sortino Ratio

-0.07

Max Drawdown

148.3%

ROI

0.7%

Profit Factor

1.21

Kelly Fraction

0.153

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

017.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	20.71	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 3?	BUY	99.2¢	57.308	Mar 2
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	16.826	Mar 2
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?	BUY	99.9¢	6.486	Feb 27
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?	BUY	99.9¢	74.745	Feb 27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	99.0¢	142.303	Feb 25
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	97.9¢	91.553	Feb 24
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	BUY	99.8¢	209.96	Feb 23
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	BUY	99.9¢	183.563	Feb 19
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?	BUY	99.5¢	182.914	Feb 16
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?	BUY	99.3¢	36.465	Feb 11
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?	BUY	99.9¢	287.407	Jan 30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	99.4¢	24.266	Jan 25
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	98.1¢	220.53	Jan 22
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	95.9¢	46.215	Jan 18
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY	93.8¢	24.701	Jan 12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	BUY	98.1¢	3.476	Dec 27
Trump out as President in 2025?	BUY	99.7¢	91.906	Dec 25
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	BUY	99.8¢	217.224	Dec 23
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting?	BUY	99.9¢	233.113	Dec 15

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing17.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.96

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)15.8%

Win Consistency68.9%

Profit Factor0.45

Drawdown Resilience0.37

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.37

Weekly Sharpe est.0.28

Trading Activity79 trades · 72 active days

P&L Calendar

$3,38914d profit58d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue