ESpokat

0x1ad9a2...5e7bf6@wobendog

Smart Score

Win Rate

60.0%

Total P&L

+$3.4K

Trade Count

999

Sharpe Ratio

1.84

Sortino Ratio

32.83

Max Drawdown

54.5%

ROI

19.9%

Profit Factor

2.35

Kelly Fraction

0.344

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

066.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	SELL	0.1¢	1.21	Mar 4
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	SELL	0.1¢	1.26	Mar 4
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	SELL	0.1¢	120	Mar 4
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	BUY	39.5¢	7.7	Mar 4
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	SELL	0.1¢	3,042.34	Mar 4
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	55.0¢	193.51	Mar 1
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	55.0¢	4.49	Mar 1
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	BUY	31.0¢	224.4	Feb 28
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	48.0¢	179	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	SELL	0.1¢	6,171.47	Feb 28
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	BUY	30.9¢	1,624.87	Feb 28
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	48.5¢	1,037.08	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	BUY	2.0¢	1,540.14	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	BUY	2.0¢	4,159.86	Feb 28
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	50.3¢	228	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	BUY	9.4¢	2.92	Feb 28
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	BUY	9.4¢	468.56	Feb 28
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	BUY	10.0¢	72.3	Feb 28
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	SELL	50.4¢	102.21	Feb 28
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	BUY	27.0¢	167.05	Feb 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Active66.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.64

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)60.2%

Win Consistency57.7%

Profit Factor1.72

Drawdown Resilience1.39

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.39

Weekly Sharpe est.1.06

Trading Activity999 trades · 24 active days

P&L Calendar

+$1,69715d profit9d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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