FluffyOrange

0x5c3f2a...c57862

Smart Score

Win Rate

46.6%

Total P&L

+$358

Trade Count

1,300

Sharpe Ratio

0.30

Sortino Ratio

1.57

Max Drawdown

274.5%

ROI

1.8%

Profit Factor

3.30

Kelly Fraction

0.324

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

032/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY	39.0¢	10	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.5¢	20	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	85.4¢	1.2	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	18.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	83.0¢	1.205	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	17.0¢	20	Mar 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	15.8¢	20	Mar 4
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	BUY	11.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	BUY	3.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	3.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	BUY	18.0¢	5	Mar 3
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY	10.9¢	5	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	18.8¢	9.36	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	18.8¢	10.638	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	16.4¢	20	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	16.0¢	20	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	15.0¢	20	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	14.6¢	20	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.0¢	20	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing32

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.76

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)29.1%

Win Consistency45.1%

Profit Factor0.83

Drawdown Resilience0.67

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.67

Weekly Sharpe est.0.51

Trading Activity1,300 trades · 77 active days

P&L Calendar

$73323d profit54d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue