gpermanga

0x0d4ef4...af4ea4

Smart Score

Win Rate

51.6%

Total P&L

+$43

Trade Count

170

Sharpe Ratio

0.63

Sortino Ratio

3.00

Max Drawdown

89.6%

ROI

4.0%

Profit Factor

1.39

Kelly Fraction

0.144

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

023.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	59.0¢	5	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	80.0¢	10	Mar 5
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	13.5¢	10	Mar 5
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	BUY	6.3¢	20	Mar 5
Kristi Noem out by March 31?	SELL	24.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?	SELL	98.9¢	10	Mar 5
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	BUY	14.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY	2.4¢	50	Mar 4
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	82.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?	SELL	73.0¢	10	Mar 4
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?	BUY	23.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	BUY	84.0¢	10	Mar 4
SBF released from custody in 2026?	SELL	12.0¢	10	Mar 4
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	SELL	99.9¢	20	Mar 4
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	33.0¢	10	Mar 3
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	BUY	19.7¢	10	Mar 3
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	BUY	19.8¢	10	Mar 3
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	SELL	50.0¢	7.02	Mar 3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	SELL	63.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	SELL	54.0¢	2.98	Mar 3

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing23.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.29

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)21.3%

Win Consistency47.7%

Profit Factor0.61

Drawdown Resilience0.49

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.49

Weekly Sharpe est.0.37

Trading Activity170 trades · 19 active days

P&L Calendar

$4994d profit15d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue