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ill-pajamas

ill-pajamas

0x738b1c...056dc9
Smart Score
42
Win Rate
51.8%
Total P&L
+$2.3K
Trade Count
849
Sharpe Ratio
0.27
Sortino Ratio
2.39
Max Drawdown
105.7%
ROI
10.4%
Profit Factor
6.46
Kelly Fraction
0.438
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
042.4/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?BUY11.5¢21.03Mar 5
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?BUY11.5¢64.02Mar 5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?BUY14.0¢100Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?SELL61.0¢99.99Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢39.34Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢2.564Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢2.7Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢2.56Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢1.63Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢16.94Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢15.65Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢15.68Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?BUY61.0¢2.93Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY2.0¢476.96Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY2.0¢5Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY2.0¢6Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY2.0¢2.04Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY2.0¢10Mar 4
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?BUY3.5¢300Mar 4
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?BUY45.0¢200Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%10%< 10%12%10–20%10%20–30%31%30–50%26%50–70%7%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing42.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.33
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)38.6%
Win Consistency54.4%
Profit Factor1.10
Drawdown Resilience0.89
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.89
Weekly Sharpe est.0.68
Trading Activity775 trades · 74 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$1,38631d profit42d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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