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Joben

0x308484...690209
Smart Score
15
Win Rate
24.1%
Total P&L
-$38
Trade Count
88
Sharpe Ratio
0.30
Sortino Ratio
1.92
Max Drawdown
649.1%
ROI
-3.4%
Profit Factor
0.90
Kelly Fraction
0.000
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
014.5/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
US strike on Cuba by December 31?BUY40.0¢12.5Mar 5
US strike on Cuba by March 31?SELL4.6¢100Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY35.0¢57.143Mar 5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?SELL96.0¢35.22Feb 28
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?BUY19.0¢26.316Feb 28
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY6.0¢83.333Feb 18
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?BUY22.0¢22.727Feb 18
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?BUY19.0¢26.316Feb 3
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? SELL0.1¢113.63Jan 30
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?BUY8.0¢31.25Jan 30
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?SELL3.1¢125.71Jan 30
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?BUY4.0¢125.714Jan 30
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?BUY2.8¢178.571Jan 30
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?SELL6.0¢14.7Jan 30
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?SELL5.6¢102.6Jan 29
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY10.2¢49.02Jan 24
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY19.9¢25.126Jan 24
US government shutdown Saturday?SELL72.0¢17.85Jan 24
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?BUY34.0¢14.706Jan 23
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?BUY26.0¢19.231Jan 21

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%42%< 10%25%10–20%13%20–30%13%30–50%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing14.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.80
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)13.2%
Win Consistency34.4%
Profit Factor0.38
Drawdown Resilience0.30
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.30
Weekly Sharpe est.0.23
Trading Activity88 trades · 38 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3558d profit30d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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