0xa16fec...e15f84

Smart Score

Win Rate

31.0%

Total P&L

-$271

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.15

Sortino Ratio

1.38

Max Drawdown

407.2%

ROI

-5.0%

Profit Factor

0.81

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

013.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	62.4¢	160.256	Mar 5
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	38.9¢	257.179	Mar 1
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?	SELL	0.1¢	1,030.55	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	SELL	8.3¢	900.5	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	62.5¢	159.943	Feb 28
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY	74.3¢	134.578	Feb 28
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	BUY	11.1¢	900.5	Feb 28
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	BUY	27.4¢	364.643	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	10.1¢	1,315.78	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	7.6¢	1,315.789	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	6.4¢	1,900	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY	4.9¢	1,900	Feb 28
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?	BUY	20.4¢	1,030.553	Feb 28
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL	19.0¢	1,000	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?	BUY	39.0¢	230.538	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY	10.0¢	1,000	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?	BUY	32.8¢	305.182	Feb 26
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	BUY	20.0¢	500	Feb 26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	SELL	7.0¢	140.84	Jan 26
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	SELL	0.4¢	818.71	Jan 26

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing13.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.73

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)12.0%

Win Consistency34.5%

Profit Factor0.34

Drawdown Resilience0.28

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.28

Weekly Sharpe est.0.21

Trading Activity49 trades · 17 active days

P&L Calendar

$1,5736d profit11d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue