johnnath1222

0x4b2847...c615df

Smart Score

Win Rate

32.3%

Total P&L

+$6.9K

Trade Count

3,946

Sharpe Ratio

0.32

Sortino Ratio

11.39

Max Drawdown

2627.7%

ROI

12.3%

Profit Factor

3.98

Kelly Fraction

0.242

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

036.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	85.1¢	65	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL	62.0¢	50	Mar 5
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?	SELL	7.0¢	500	Mar 5
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL	44.0¢	25	Mar 5
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?	BUY	8.9¢	175.34	Mar 5
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	SELL	30.0¢	100	Mar 5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	SELL	23.9¢	300	Mar 5
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	BUY	15.0¢	7.64	Mar 5
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	SELL	12.0¢	0.3	Mar 5
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	SELL	12.0¢	2.89	Mar 5
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	SELL	12.0¢	25	Mar 5
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	SELL	12.0¢	8.333	Mar 5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	BUY	5.0¢	300	Mar 5
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?	SELL	12.0¢	5	Mar 5
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	BUY	13.0¢	5.48	Mar 4
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026?	BUY	5.0¢	500	Mar 4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	BUY	15.0¢	3.25	Mar 4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	BUY	15.0¢	7.424	Mar 4
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	BUY	15.0¢	7.58	Mar 4
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?	SELL	1.2¢	958.6	Mar 4

Analytics

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Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing36.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.00

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)33.1%

Win Consistency48.5%

Profit Factor0.95

Drawdown Resilience0.76

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.76

Weekly Sharpe est.0.58

Trading Activity3,946 trades · 221 active days

P&L Calendar

+$2,761108d profit111d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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