just.some.guy.2026

0x56ebe2...5e076a

Smart Score

Win Rate

60.5%

Total P&L

+$97.1K

Trade Count

995

Sharpe Ratio

0.75

Sortino Ratio

2.75

Max Drawdown

9.4%

ROI

35.3%

Profit Factor

5.10

Kelly Fraction

0.487

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

069.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	60.9¢	355.01	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	60.8¢	2,500	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	78.0¢	2,000	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	60.1¢	1,236.84	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	60.0¢	2,000	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	59.5¢	2,177.84	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	72.7¢	2,811.23	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	78.1¢	3,050.34	Mar 3
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	BUY	84.0¢	31.2	Feb 28
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	BUY	84.0¢	2,863.6	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	3,830.95	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	16	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	10	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	550	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	10	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	10	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	203.385	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	30	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	33.708	Feb 27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY	35.0¢	53.6	Feb 27

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Active69.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.82

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)63.2%

Win Consistency51.1%

Profit Factor1.81

Drawdown Resilience1.46

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.46

Weekly Sharpe est.1.11

Trading Activity995 trades · 26 active days

P&L Calendar

$21,1505d profit21d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue