Kellyd2

0x509882...d56c78

Smart Score

Win Rate

90.0%

Total P&L

+$4

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-5.75

Sortino Ratio

-4.89

Max Drawdown

1472.2%

ROI

0.5%

Profit Factor

1.43

Kelly Fraction

0.269

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

012.7/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 6?	BUY	98.6¢	5	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?	BUY	97.8¢	10	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 5?	SELL	99.9¢	2	Mar 5
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 5?	BUY	99.0¢	10	Mar 5
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 8 be 100 or more?	BUY	99.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 5?	BUY	97.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 5?	BUY	97.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 5?	SELL	99.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?	SELL	99.3¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?	SELL	99.1¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 5?	BUY	98.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 5?	BUY	98.8¢	2	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 4?	BUY	99.0¢	10	Mar 4
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 4?	SELL	99.1¢	10	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?	BUY	98.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 3?	SELL	99.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 4?	BUY	97.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 3?	SELL	99.9¢	10	Mar 3
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?	BUY	97.0¢	10	Mar 3
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	SELL	99.3¢	10	Mar 3

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

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Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing12.7

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.70

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)11.6%

Win Consistency44.0%

Profit Factor0.33

Drawdown Resilience0.27

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.27

Weekly Sharpe est.0.20

Trading Activity92 trades · 32 active days

P&L Calendar

$6016d profit16d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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