kostafun

0x6d50d1...211f5d

Smart Score

Win Rate

30.2%

Total P&L

+$725

Trade Count

171

Sharpe Ratio

0.34

Sortino Ratio

3.54

Max Drawdown

336.0%

ROI

23.7%

Profit Factor

2.16

Kelly Fraction

0.163

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

025.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	10.0¢	70	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	13.0¢	130.02	Mar 5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY	14.9¢	200	Mar 5
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.1¢	200	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?	BUY	48.0¢	100	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	5.27	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	23.0¢	50	Mar 4
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	102.56	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	9.17	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	3	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	30	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	20	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	4.9¢	30	Mar 3
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	5.0¢	200	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	SELL	1.2¢	150	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	SELL	1.3¢	150	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	18.0¢	149.98	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	29.0¢	47.88	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	29.0¢	2.113	Mar 3
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	SELL	21.0¢	50	Mar 3

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing25.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.40

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)23.1%

Win Consistency35.6%

Profit Factor0.66

Drawdown Resilience0.53

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.53

Weekly Sharpe est.0.41

Trading Activity157 trades · 27 active days

P&L Calendar

+$3266d profit21d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue