Kuomintang

0x426227...b9abaa

Smart Score

Win Rate

80.5%

Total P&L

+$3.9K

Trade Count

2,603

Sharpe Ratio

0.23

Sortino Ratio

1.72

Max Drawdown

16784.3%

ROI

2.5%

Profit Factor

3.56

Kelly Fraction

0.579

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

035.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	SELL	83.0¢	182.55	Mar 5
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?	BUY	61.0¢	6.8	Mar 5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	BUY	20.0¢	125	Mar 5
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?	SELL	89.9¢	40.904	Mar 5
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?	SELL	89.9¢	10	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	83.7¢	50	Mar 5
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4?	SELL	99.9¢	53.65	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	70.3¢	50	Mar 5
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	BUY	85.0¢	13.35	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	60.0¢	18.04	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	60.0¢	1.96	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	47.2¢	20	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	SELL	59.9¢	50	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	55.3¢	30	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	55.4¢	19.47	Mar 4
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	55.4¢	0.53	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	74.0¢	41.73	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	74.0¢	8.27	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	SELL	40.0¢	45.45	Mar 4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	45.455	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing35.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.97

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)32.6%

Win Consistency49.4%

Profit Factor0.93

Drawdown Resilience0.75

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.75

Weekly Sharpe est.0.57

Trading Activity2,603 trades · 71 active days

P&L Calendar

$40,17114d profit57d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue