LavishPenguins

0x0f4f94...0d278c

Smart Score

Win Rate

62.5%

Total P&L

+$77

Trade Count

764

Sharpe Ratio

0.18

Sortino Ratio

0.60

Max Drawdown

1202.9%

ROI

4.9%

Profit Factor

2.14

Kelly Fraction

0.333

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

026.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	52.0¢	1	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	88.7¢	2.007	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL	65.0¢	1	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	82.0¢	2.024	Mar 5
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?	SELL	95.0¢	1	Mar 5
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?	SELL	95.0¢	1	Mar 5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	32.9¢	1	Mar 5
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	32.9¢	1	Mar 5
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	BUY	80.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	75.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	75.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?	BUY	57.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?	SELL	98.1¢	2	Mar 4
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	SELL	99.5¢	4.07	Mar 4
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	93.3¢	2.015	Mar 4
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?	BUY	89.0¢	2	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	53.4¢	1	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	53.4¢	1	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	53.2¢	1	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	53.2¢	1	Mar 4

Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing26.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.45

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.0%

Win Consistency55.3%

Profit Factor0.69

Drawdown Resilience0.55

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.55

Weekly Sharpe est.0.42

Trading Activity764 trades · 35 active days

P&L Calendar

$19913d profit22d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue