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lsier

0x5c7745...450c0d
Smart Score
56
Win Rate
76.0%
Total P&L
+$191
Trade Count
32
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Sortino Ratio
0.08
Max Drawdown
63.7%
ROI
0.5%
Profit Factor
65.61
Kelly Fraction
0.748
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
056.3/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?BUY98.9¢1,174.095Mar 5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY99.3¢5.035Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETSELL42.1¢1.82Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETBUY54.0¢1.852Mar 5
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL92.3¢107.72Jan 29
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?BUY98.5¢845.452Jan 23
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY71.0¢28.169Jan 23
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?BUY95.0¢105.263Jan 23
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY92.8¢107.723Jan 23
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?SELL99.8¢539.6Jan 23
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY98.5¢539.604Dec 24
Maduro out in 2025?BUY97.2¢514.255Dec 24
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?BUY86.0¢116.279Dec 24
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?BUY99.6¢907.982Nov 30
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?BUY91.0¢109.89Nov 30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?BUY88.0¢113.636Nov 30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?BUY94.0¢1,104.351Oct 17
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?SELL97.8¢9,255.82Oct 16
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?BUY97.8¢9,255.828Oct 15
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?BUY99.9¢7,931.231Oct 14

Analytics

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Odds DistributionFavorite / High-Confidence

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%< 10%10–20%20–30%30–50%7%50–70%4%70–80%19%80–90%70%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Active56.3

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)3.10
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)51.2%
Win Consistency80.0%
Profit Factor1.46
Drawdown Resilience1.18
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.18
Weekly Sharpe est.0.90
Trading Activity24 trades · 12 active days
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P&L Calendar
$14,0392d profit10d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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