mkalis

0x2b2387...88f3ce

Smart Score

Win Rate

17.3%

Total P&L

-$274

Trade Count

132

Sharpe Ratio

0.45

Sortino Ratio

59.74

Max Drawdown

743.6%

ROI

-35.7%

Profit Factor

0.08

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

02.4/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win less than 10% of votes in the first round?	SELL	0.1¢	100	Jan 21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	BUY	1.3¢	76.923	Jan 20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	BUY	1.3¢	1,384.615	Jan 20
Will 1 judge rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?	SELL	0.6¢	84.85	Jan 20
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?	SELL	2.0¢	146.52	Jan 20
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	SELL	10.0¢	45.45	Jan 20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	BUY	1.3¢	1,923.077	Jan 20
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?	SELL	1.1¢	454.54	Jan 20
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	SELL	1.1¢	430	Jan 20
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?	BUY	0.1¢	20,000	Jan 20
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?	BUY	0.1¢	20,000	Jan 20
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	SELL	55.0¢	10	Jan 20
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	SELL	55.0¢	10	Jan 20
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	99.5¢	8	Jan 20
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	99.0¢	8	Jan 20
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	99.0¢	2	Jan 20
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	SELL	95.0¢	5	Jan 20
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	SELL	2.0¢	5	Jan 20
Will Trump say "Nobel" this week? (January 25)	BUY	0.1¢	958.44	Jan 20
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL	83.0¢	12.5	Jan 20

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing2.4

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.13

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)2.2%

Win Consistency40.7%

Profit Factor0.06

Drawdown Resilience0.05

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.05

Weekly Sharpe est.0.04

Trading Activity132 trades · 4 active days

P&L Calendar

$3321d profit3d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue