Mr-guess

0x140ee5...96ea2f

Smart Score

Win Rate

64.3%

Total P&L

+$183

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

-0.33

Sortino Ratio

-0.56

Max Drawdown

760.1%

ROI

14.6%

Profit Factor

3.33

Kelly Fraction

0.450

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

026.5/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	SELL	97.1¢	167.61	Mar 5
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	SELL	31.0¢	3.03	Jan 19
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?	BUY	2.6¢	59.231	Jan 19
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	SELL	34.0¢	4.54	Jan 19
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	BUY	84.3¢	61.437	Jan 19
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?	BUY	94.0¢	31.915	Jan 19
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?	BUY	91.0¢	10.989	Jan 19
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	BUY	94.7¢	1.056	Jan 19
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	BUY	65.0¢	46.154	Jan 19
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?	BUY	83.0¢	36.145	Jan 19
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	BUY	70.6¢	141.648	Jan 19
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	BUY	79.0¢	12.658	Jan 19
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?	BUY	96.0¢	10.417	Jan 19
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	BUY	79.0¢	12.658	Jan 19
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	BUY	33.0¢	3.03	Jan 19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	BUY	88.0¢	11.364	Jan 18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	BUY	34.0¢	30.382	Aug 13
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?	SELL	93.0¢	11.11	Aug 13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	BUY	75.0¢	16.28	Jul 23
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?	BUY	93.0¢	1.075	Jul 23

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing26.5

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.46

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)24.1%

Win Consistency62.0%

Profit Factor0.69

Drawdown Resilience0.56

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.56

Weekly Sharpe est.0.42

Trading Activity48 trades · 4 active days

P&L Calendar

$5011d profit2d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue