mts

0x7539d7...eeb40e

Smart Score

Win Rate

21.4%

Total P&L

+$3.0K

Trade Count

Sharpe Ratio

0.41

Sortino Ratio

1.19

Max Drawdown

20.5%

ROI

46.0%

Profit Factor

5.82

Kelly Fraction

0.177

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

050.8/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	BUY	51.0¢	19.608	Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	BUY	51.0¢	29.412	Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	BUY	51.9¢	19.268	Mar 5
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	BUY	40.0¢	12.5	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY	36.3¢	27.578	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	BUY	22.0¢	45.455	Mar 5
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY	6.2¢	161.29	Mar 5
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	0.5¢	3,000	Dec 10
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	2.7¢	185.185	Dec 10
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY	0.5¢	2,000	Dec 10
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104	SELL	96.3¢	2,955.62	Nov 6
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	SELL	99.6¢	1,854.01	Nov 6
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34	BUY	8.0¢	2,500	Nov 5
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104	BUY	21.0¢	1,733.333	Nov 5
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?	BUY	14.0¢	714.286	Nov 5
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104	BUY	20.5¢	1,222.296	Nov 5
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64	BUY	15.0¢	1,666.667	Nov 5
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	BUY	27.0¢	1,854.016	Nov 5

Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing50.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.79

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)46.2%

Win Consistency35.7%

Profit Factor1.32

Drawdown Resilience1.07

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.07

Weekly Sharpe est.0.81

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue