Accrue
Log inGet Access

neandertal

0x072ac1...1c3e85
Smart Score
54
Win Rate
28.8%
Total P&L
+$1.4K
Trade Count
817
Sharpe Ratio
0.52
Sortino Ratio
208.63
Max Drawdown
9.3%
ROI
103.6%
Profit Factor
1.35
Kelly Fraction
0.074
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
053.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31?SELL1.1¢288.83Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on December 20?SELL99.9¢10.96Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on December 20?SELL97.0¢13.75Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on December 21?SELL11.7¢60Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?SELL22.0¢48Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?BUY50.0¢4Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?BUY50.0¢6Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?BUY50.0¢2Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on December 20?BUY0.1¢500Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on December 20?BUY0.1¢100Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on December 20?BUY0.1¢100Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 20?BUY0.1¢30Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on December 20?BUY0.1¢100Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 20?BUY0.1¢70Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on December 20?BUY1.0¢50.7Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on December 21?BUY52.0¢5Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on December 20?BUY1.0¢20Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on December 21?BUY52.0¢25Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?BUY50.0¢10Dec 20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on December 21?BUY50.0¢2Dec 20

Analytics

Unlock full analytics on Accrue
Odds DistributionContrarian / Long-Shot Hunter

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%83%< 10%5%10–20%4%20–30%3%30–50%5%50–70%70–80%80–90%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing53.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)2.96
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)49.0%
Win Consistency46.9%
Profit Factor1.40
Drawdown Resilience1.13
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)1.13
Weekly Sharpe est.0.86
Trading Activity817 trades · 14 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$3481d profit13d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

Unlock Full Analytics