Occidentaliste

0x499290...8e9cd4

Smart Score

Win Rate

56.5%

Total P&L

-$3.6K

Trade Count

789

Sharpe Ratio

0.13

Sortino Ratio

0.23

Max Drawdown

87.8%

ROI

-4.4%

Profit Factor

0.76

Kelly Fraction

0.000

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

013.2/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	89.0¢	50	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	BUY	65.0¢	50	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	37.0¢	228.5	Mar 5
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?	BUY	97.2¢	1,029.267	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	BUY	68.0¢	12.53	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	BUY	68.0¢	137.469	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	61.96	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	2.73	Mar 5
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?	BUY	37.0¢	21.5	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	54.054	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?	BUY	63.0¢	31.25	Mar 5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?	BUY	87.1¢	229.659	Mar 5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	SELL	70.0¢	150	Mar 5
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	SELL	19.0¢	0.33	Mar 4
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	SELL	19.0¢	151	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	84.0¢	30.07	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	84.0¢	52.574	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	84.0¢	18.75	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	84.0¢	12.5	Mar 4
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	BUY	84.0¢	1.1	Mar 4

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing13.2

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.73

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)12.0%

Win Consistency52.5%

Profit Factor0.34

Drawdown Resilience0.28

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.28

Weekly Sharpe est.0.21

Trading Activity789 trades · 56 active days

P&L Calendar

$11,61123d profit33d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue