omershw

0x1cd355...225b39

Smart Score

Win Rate

44.0%

Total P&L

+$90

Trade Count

117

Sharpe Ratio

0.05

Sortino Ratio

0.16

Max Drawdown

94.9%

ROI

9.5%

Profit Factor

1.63

Kelly Fraction

0.170

R² (Curve Fit)

—

Smart Score

019.9/100100

Recent Trades

Market	Side	Price	Size	Time
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	85.2¢	10.56	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	77.0¢	3.896	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	60.0¢	6.667	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	SELL	36.0¢	6.81	Mar 5
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?	BUY	44.0¢	6.818	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL	52.0¢	14.34	Mar 4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	61.1¢	1.637	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	63.9¢	1.565	Mar 3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY	35.9¢	11.142	Mar 3
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL	56.0¢	9.61	Mar 3
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL	15.5¢	7.22	Mar 3
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	50.5¢	1.98	Mar 3
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	61.0¢	5	Mar 2
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	BUY	51.0¢	3.922	Mar 2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY	52.0¢	9.615	Mar 2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?	SELL	90.0¢	6.75	Mar 2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?	BUY	74.0¢	6.757	Mar 1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	99.8¢	9.99	Mar 1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY	43.0¢	6.977	Feb 28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL	96.7¢	3.32	Feb 28

Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

← Long ShotsSafe Bets →

Quantitative Edge Profile

Developing19.9

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)1.09

Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)18.1%

Win Consistency50.9%

Profit Factor0.52

Drawdown Resilience0.42

Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.42

Weekly Sharpe est.0.32

Trading Activity117 trades · 56 active days

P&L Calendar

$14719d profit37d loss

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue