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PaulThompson638

0x3d99ed...e06147
Smart Score
18
Win Rate
42.9%
Total P&L
+$4
Trade Count
42
Sharpe Ratio
-0.44
Sortino Ratio
-0.71
Max Drawdown
10766.7%
ROI
0.2%
Profit Factor
5.05
Kelly Fraction
0.344
R² (Curve Fit)
—
Smart Score
017.8/100100

Recent Trades

MarketSidePriceSizeTime
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2¢623.76Mar 5
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL99.8¢25.96Mar 2
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY99.8¢25.96Feb 22
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL99.8¢35.81Feb 19
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY99.9¢35.81Feb 10
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL98.8¢52.83Feb 8
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY99.0¢52.83Feb 1
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL9.0¢92.17Jan 28
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY5.3¢92.17Jan 21
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League?SELL99.8¢78.57Jan 18
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY99.9¢78.57Jan 11
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL98.6¢82.36Jan 5
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY98.8¢82.36Dec 29
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL99.6¢75.09Dec 27
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY99.7¢75.09Dec 18
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL95.0¢122.65Dec 16
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY96.5¢122.65Dec 7
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL3.3¢67.3Dec 5
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?BUY3.2¢67.3Dec 1
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?SELL0.8¢81.18Nov 28

Analytics

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Odds DistributionBalanced / Mid-Range

Entry price distribution — reveals preference for long shots vs safe bets

100%75%50%25%41%< 10%10–20%20–30%30–50%5%50–70%70–80%80–90%55%> 90%
← Long ShotsSafe Bets →
Quantitative Edge Profile
Developing17.8

Multi-dimensional edge evaluation as a quant desk would assess a portfolio manager

Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe)0.98
Equity Curve R² (Linear Fit)16.2%
Win Consistency14.3%
Profit Factor0.46
Drawdown Resilience0.37
Conviction Sizing (Kelly)0.37
Weekly Sharpe est.0.28
Trading Activity42 trades · 41 active days
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLessMore
P&L Calendar
$819d profit22d loss
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarMoWeFrSuLossProfit

Daily realized P&L — green is profit, red is loss, intensity is magnitude

Full 52-week Trading Activity & P&L Calendar — interactive, updated daily on Accrue

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